Household Preparedness Report

What to Stock Up On -- Mid-2026

$1,700+ household tariff burden
3.8% CPI 3-year high, Apr 2026
Hormuz closed since Feb 28, 2026
17 claims verified / 8 refuted
Overall Progress
Food: 0/6 Pharma: 0/5 Electronics: 0/4 Energy: 0/4 Plastics: 0/4
Food & Pantry
Coffee (whole bean, shelf-stable)
All-time record $9.72/lb ground roasted -- stock now before further increases
+18.5% YoY
Canned proteins (tuna, salmon, chicken, beans)
Domestic, import-proof, 3-5 year shelf life
Stockpile
Grains and starches (rice, oats, pasta, flour)
Fertilizer spike passes through to 2026 harvest pricing -- urea up 34%
+34% urea
Cooking oils (olive, canola, vegetable)
Import-exposed, transport costs rising -- buy warehouse club sizes
Stockpile
Frozen tilapia / Canadian frozen pork
AVOID -- switch to domestic proteins. Already +47% and +33% YoY at retail
+47% YoY
Seeds for vegetable garden
Trivial cost, direct hedge against ongoing produce inflation
Action
Pharma & Medical
90-day supply of all maintenance medications
Ask physician for larger-fill prescriptions now -- 25% of generic APIs are Chinese-sourced
25% at risk
Antibiotics (ask physician for standing prescription)
~90% of global antibiotic API is Chinese-origin -- Section 232 exemption is temporary
Critical
OTC staples (ibuprofen, acetaminophen, antihistamines, antacids)
Chinese API exposure -- buy 6-month supply at current prices
Stockpile
Bandages, gloves, gauze, wound care supplies
LPG/naphtha (plastics feedstock) disruption raises medical supply costs -- 3-9mo lag ahead
Stockpile
Blood pressure cuff, thermometer, glucose monitor (if applicable)
Electronics tariff exposure -- buy any needed devices before further increases
+3% now
Electronics & Appliances
Any major appliance due for replacement (washer, refrigerator, HVAC)
Walmart general merchandise inflation exceeded 3% -- Adobe Digital Price Index hit a 12-year record in Jan 2026
+4% Jan
Laptops, phones, tablets on their replacement cycle
Structural tariff exposure -- no rollback expected near-term. Buy now if replacement is coming in next 12 months
Rising
Extended warranty / service contracts on existing appliances
Lock in at current service rates before contractor costs rise further
Act Now
Spare parts for critical home systems (HVAC filters, water heater anode, etc.)
Availability and import-sourced part costs both deteriorating
Stockpile
Energy & Fuel
Propane tanks -- fill and top off all tanks
Hormuz closure cut ~30% of global seaborne LPG -- direct feedstock for propane
30% cut
Gasoline -- rotate stored supply (treat with Sta-Bil)
WTI crude up 10-13% post-Hormuz closure -- prices trending up
+10% WTI
Portable generator (if not already owned)
Energy supply disruption risk if Hormuz closure continues through summer
Action
Extra firewood or heating fuel (if applicable)
Low storage cost, good heating energy hedge for fall/winter
Stockpile
Plastics & Consumables
Cleaning supplies (laundry detergent, dish soap, surface cleaners)
Plastics packaging costs rising -- 3-9 month supply chain lag means worst impact still ahead
Buy Bulk
Disposables (trash bags, zip-lock bags, plastic wrap)
LPG/naphtha feedstock disruption -- 24-30% of global supply cut off via Hormuz
24-30% cut
Personal care (shampoo, conditioner, toothpaste, razors)
Tubes and plastic packaging cost pressure -- buy warehouse sizes now
Buy Bulk
Paper towels and toilet paper
Indirect energy and transport cost exposure -- bulk purchase protects against coming increases
Buy Bulk
Plan Ahead -- 6-18 Months
Home: 0/5 Financial: 0/5 Health: 0/4 Skills: 0/4 Documents: 0/3
Home Resilience
Solar + battery storage -- get quotes now
Installer backlogs growing. Federal ITC at 30% through 2032 -- lock in before backlog worsens
High ROI
Home energy audit + weatherproofing and insulation
Lock in contractor availability and material costs before further increases
Act Now
Whole-home backup power (generator or battery like Powerwall)
Relevant if Hormuz disruptions hit refined fuel or grid stability through summer
Medium
Whole-home water filtration system
Infrastructure stress increases during energy crunches -- quality hedge
Medium
Expand vegetable garden
Produce inflation ongoing through 2026 harvest -- direct food hedge at minimal cost
Low Cost
Financial
3-6 month cash emergency fund in high-yield savings
Lock in current rates before Fed responds to inflation with rate moves
Priority
Reduce variable-rate debt (credit cards, HELOCs, ARMs)
Energy shocks may drive Fed rate response -- variable debt becomes more expensive
Priority
I-bonds ($10,000 per person per year at TreasuryDirect.gov)
Inflation-indexed, government-backed -- strong hedge. Annual limit applies per person
Medium
Review home, auto, and umbrella insurance coverage
Rebuild costs up 20-40% in 3 years -- many policies are now significantly undervalued
Urgent
Review investment exposure to oil-import and China supply chain equities
Reduce overexposure to sectors most vulnerable to Hormuz disruption and tariff escalation
Medium
Health & Services
Schedule all deferred medical and dental appointments
Healthcare costs trend up; specialty wait times lengthening -- act before further delays
Act Now
Confirm 90-day fills on all maintenance medications
Structural supply chain risk regardless of temporary tariff exemptions
Critical
Lock in home service contracts (HVAC, plumbing, electrical)
Contractor costs rising -- annual service agreements lock in today's labor rates
Smart
Prepay fixed-price service agreements (pest control, lawn, pool)
Lock in before rate increases hit -- annual prepay typically saves 10-15% over monthly billing
Smart
Skills
Basic home repair (plumbing, HVAC filters, electrical basics)
Contractor availability poor and costs rising -- YouTube + one good home repair book covers 80% of needs
Learn
First aid and CPR certification
Healthcare system under stress; practical in any scenario -- Red Cross courses are local and affordable
Learn
Food preservation (canning, dehydrating, freezing)
Extends value of bulk purchases -- multiplies the benefit of stockpiling
Learn
Vegetable growing basics
Low cost, high return -- even a small plot produces meaningful produce savings
Learn
Documents & Community
Digital and physical copies of all critical documents
Passports, deeds, wills, insurance policies, financial accounts -- encrypted cloud backup + fireproof physical copies
Action
Know your local mutual aid network
Community ties are the most underrated preparedness asset -- identify neighbors, local organizations, and resources
Action
Establish relationship with local farmers or CSA
Community-supported agriculture hedges grocery supply chain -- direct sourcing bypasses retail markup and import exposure
Action
Confirmed -- 17 claims
Tariffs imposed $1,700+ cumulative household burden (2025-2026 combined regimes)
Vote: 3-0
Tax Foundation
CPI hit 3.8% in April 2026 -- 3-year high. Real wages fell 0.2% YoY. Groceries up 0.7% in one month (largest since Aug 2022)
Vote: 3-0
BLS via Time, May 2026
Coffee up 18.5% YoY -- ground roasted at all-time record $9.72/lb in April 2026
Vote: 3-0
BLS / Daily Coffee News
Tilapia +47%, Canadian hash browns +33%, Canadian pork +33% YoY at retail (verified at Hannaford, Market Basket)
Vote: 3-0
Concord Monitor, Apr 2026
Walmart general merchandise inflation exceeded 3% -- attributed directly to tariffs by CFO in SEC filings
Vote: 2-1
CBS News / Walmart SEC
Adobe Digital Price Index: +4% single-month increase in January 2026 -- largest in 12 years of e-commerce tracking
Vote: 3-0
Adobe Digital Economy Index
~25% of US generic drug unit volume uses Chinese-produced APIs. Antibiotic exposure "especially acute" (~90% of global antibiotic API is Chinese-origin)
Vote: 3-0
Brookings / NEJM Oct 2025
Hormuz closure disrupted ~25% global seaborne oil, ~20% LNG, ~30% nitrogen fertilizer, ~30% LPG, ~24% naphtha (plastics feedstock)
Vote: 3-0 / 2-1
Atlantic Council / EIA / IEA
US urea prices rose 28-34% within 3 weeks of Feb 28 closure. DAP/MAP above $700/MT. Persian Gulf = 17% of US DAP/MAP supply
Vote: 3-0 / 2-1
farmdoc daily, U of Illinois
Refuted -- 8 claims killed
100% pharmaceutical tariff took effect Oct 1, 2025 per Apr 2026 executive order
Vote: 0-3 -- did not survive verification
Exact structure and date unconfirmed
US weighted-average tariff rate rose to 15.2% -- highest since 1947
Vote: 0-3 -- exact figure not confirmed
Tax Foundation data does not support this specific figure
Gasoline index rose 28.4% YoY in April 2026; national average exceeded $4.50/gallon
Vote: 1-2 -- not confirmed
Actual YoY gasoline figures lower than claimed
Fresh fruits and vegetables rose 6.1% YoY; tomatoes up 40% YoY
Vote: 1-2 -- not confirmed
Tomato figure especially could not be verified at retail level
Harvard Business School Pricing Lab: tariffs added 0.7pp to CPI by Sep 2025
Vote: 0-3 -- not confirmed
Figure could not be verified from primary sources
Iran blocked 90%+ of shipping through Hormuz -- cutting 10 million barrels per day
Vote: 0-3 -- significantly overstated
Actual disruption significant but not at 10M bbl/day scale
Crude oil reached $126/barrel on March 8, 2026
Vote: 1-2 -- not confirmed
Wikipedia cited figure did not survive adversarial verification
Average US resident uses 255 kg of new plastics annually (4x global average)
Vote: 0-3 -- not confirmed
Per-capita plastics figure could not be verified
Research Sources
Primary Source

Tax Foundation -- Trump Tariffs Trade War

Calculates $1,000/household burden from 2025 tariffs and $700/household from 2026 Section 122/232 regime. Corroborated by Yale Budget Lab and Tax Policy Center.

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Primary Source

Yale Budget Lab -- Tariff Economic Effects

Tracks cumulative economic effects of 2025-2026 tariff regimes. Used to corroborate household cost burden figures.

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Secondary Source

Time -- Inflation, Gas Prices, Food, Tariffs (May 2026)

BLS April 2026 CPI data: 3.8% all-items, 0.7% single-month grocery increase, coffee at record $9.72/lb. Real wage data from Atlanta Fed and BLS earnings release.

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Secondary Source

Concord Monitor -- Tariffs Impact Grocery Prices (Apr 2026)

Verified retail price data from Hannaford and Market Basket: tilapia +46.74%, hash browns +32.58%, Canadian pork +33.44% YoY. March 2025 to March 2026.

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Secondary Source

CBS News -- Walmart Tariffs General Merchandise

Walmart CFO attributed Q4 FY2026 general merchandise inflation exceeding 3% directly to tariffs. Corroborated by PBS, ABC News, and SEC filings. Adobe DPI data included.

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Primary Source

Brookings -- Pharmaceuticals and China Supply Chain

FDA data confirms ~25% of US generic drug unit volume uses Chinese-produced APIs. Antibiotic exposure described as "especially acute." Corroborated by Atlantic Council and Senate Aging Committee.

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Primary Source

NEJM -- Pharmaceutical Tariff Risks (Oct 2025)

Warns pharmaceutical tariffs would "increase costs for public health care payers and potentially reduce the availability of important generic medicines." April 2026 Section 232 exemption is temporary.

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Secondary Source

Atlantic Council -- Hormuz Crisis: Plastics and Food Supply Chains

Hormuz closure cut ~30% LPG and ~24% naphtha -- key plastics manufacturing feedstocks. 3-9 month lag before worst consumer-facing price impact materializes.

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Primary Source

farmdoc Daily -- Hormuz and US Fertilizer Supply (Mar 2026)

University of Illinois analysis using USDA 2023 trade data. Persian Gulf = 17% of US DAP/MAP supply, 12% of urea. Urea up 28-34% within 3 weeks of closure. DAP/MAP above $700/MT.

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Secondary Source

Fortune -- Farmers Perfect Storm (Apr 2026)

Drought, fertilizer prices, fuel costs, and tariffs converging on 2026 US growing season. Documents mechanism by which fertilizer cost increases pass through to grocery prices.

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